Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 23.608109 25.713149 27.989747 30.646797 33.677947 37.046235 41.097584
2025-12-14 20.037102 22.878629 26.171087 30.315059 35.459873 41.731513 50.106556
2025-12-21 18.395633 21.803105 25.977030 31.574180 39.058793 48.996344 63.697593
2025-12-28 16.644570 20.269470 24.895531 31.405714 40.637130 53.788539 75.058212
2026-01-04 15.354642 19.119519 24.090889 31.381168 42.265986 58.802404 87.931020
2026-01-11 14.468727 18.377693 23.700515 31.808344 44.520268 65.089465 104.650497
2026-01-18 13.569107 17.513507 23.020876 31.678817 45.830263 70.034231 120.511352
2026-01-25 12.749064 16.679805 22.286678 31.345646 46.708726 74.346772 136.600741
2026-02-01 12.103124 16.036807 21.761971 31.257285 47.949654 79.537690 156.654704
2026-02-08 11.487102 15.387581 21.164264 30.967698 48.764629 84.043626 177.076094
2026-02-15 10.919086 14.768212 20.557731 30.587831 49.338548 88.157964 198.516369
2026-02-22 10.425109 14.227070 20.029063 30.279037 49.988945 92.574285 223.327940
2026-03-01 9.985196 13.748771 19.575947 30.075661 50.858719 97.822389 254.727035
2026-03-08 9.540383 13.237888 19.035181 29.663495 51.250026 102.061989 286.031416
2026-03-15 9.434194 13.249585 19.351449 30.851674 55.207668 116.590695 372.930108
2026-03-22 9.091139 12.862772 18.968903 30.677708 56.145037 123.268628 433.033038
2026-03-29 8.799808 12.543098 18.678190 30.650220 57.412881 131.356031 512.768333
2026-04-05 8.600932 12.362659 18.614533 31.061952 59.789779 143.775284 643.446289
2026-04-12 8.332193 12.052493 18.301413 30.936282 60.831244 152.272059 767.292695
2026-04-19 8.052405 11.710532 17.910720 30.614000 61.327310 159.122060 897.866179
2026-04-26 7.825026 11.446238 17.644322 30.528507 62.433804 168.755241 1093.396733
2026-05-03 7.584670 11.149237 17.301211 30.248450 62.979016 176.522250 1305.236112
2026-05-10 7.346895 10.846828 16.932008 29.881045 63.233542 183.306577 1545.930891